June 4, 2025

Macrofinancial Outlook for the Day
Published

June 4, 2025

Releases

ADP Employment

May 2025: Hiring Reached Its Lowest Level Since March Of 2023. [ADP, 2025-06-04]

Beige Book

June 2025: Economic And Policy Uncertainty Contributed To Declines In Economic Activity. According to the Federal Reserve, “Reports across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report. Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions. Manufacturing activity declined slightly. Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most Districts reporting slight declines or no change; however, some Districts reported increases in spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs. Residential real estate sales were little changed, and most District reports on new home construction indicate flat or slowing construction activity. Reports on bank loan demand and capital spending plans were mixed. Activity at ports was robust, while reports on transportation and warehouse activity in other areas were mixed. On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report. However, a few District reports indicate the outlook has deteriorated while a few others indicate the outlook has improved.” [Federal Reserve, 2025-06-04]

June 2025: Respondents To The Fed’s Beige Book Survey Projected Higher Expected Future Prices. According to the Federal Reserve, “Prices have increased at a moderate pace since the previous report. There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial. All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices. However, contacts’ responses to these higher costs varied, including increasing prices on affected items, increasing prices on all items, reducing profit margins, and adding temporary fees or surcharges. Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months.” [Federal Reserve, 2025-06-04]