Trump’s Approval Rating
| 2025-08-25 |
-23.32 % |
-20.43 % |
3 |
-17.55 % |
| 2025-08-18 |
-7.98 % |
-6.45 % |
7 |
-4.91 % |
| 2025-08-11 |
-10.98 % |
-9.27 % |
7 |
-7.55 % |
| 2025-08-04 |
-7.54 % |
-6.04 % |
8 |
-4.55 % |
How Likely is it that Trump is Underwater?
Distribution of Estimated Net Approval
Evolution of This Confidence
| 2025-08-25 |
100.0 % |
100.0 % |
100.0 % |
100.0 % |
| 2025-08-18 |
100.0 % |
99.98 % |
98.72 % |
15.39 % |
| 2025-08-11 |
100.0 % |
100.0 % |
99.99 % |
99.72 % |
| 2025-08-04 |
100.0 % |
99.98 % |
96.27 % |
4.8 % |
Are Democrats Ahead on the Generic Ballot?
NOTE: There are very few polls in my dataset so far, so the model is not very confident
| 2025-08-18 |
-11.92 % |
2.63 % |
1 |
17.18 % |
| 2025-08-11 |
-2.95 % |
1.15 % |
2 |
5.26 % |
| 2025-08-04 |
-1.86 % |
0.54 % |
3 |
2.94 % |
| 2025-07-28 |
1.3 % |
3.94 % |
3 |
6.59 % |
How Likely Are Democrats Ahead?
Distribution of Estimated Generic Ballot
| 2025-08-18 |
72.57 % |
46.56 % |
29.36 % |
16.83 % |
| 2025-08-11 |
80.2 % |
9.8 % |
1.27 % |
0.23 % |
| 2025-08-04 |
75.96 % |
0.91 % |
0.08 % |
0.01 % |
| 2025-07-28 |
99.84 % |
84.49 % |
12.99 % |
0.54 % |
Evolution of This Confidence