Steve Bannon Boosted E.J. Antoni Before Trump Appointed Him To Lead BLS. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Antoni’s supporters include former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, who has pushed for Trump to have a MAGA ally the president trusts running BLS. Antoni called for the removal of Erika McEntarfer as head of BLS on Bannon’s show following the release of a weak July jobs report. Hours later Trump ordered his team to fire her. ‘E.J. Antoni as the new head of Bureau of Labor Statistics—that’s what we”re pushing. He’s the guy that almost single-handedly took it down by going through their numbers,’ Bannon said on his podcast.” [Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-10]
August 2025: Trump Pushed For A Redo Of The 2020 Census. According to Trump, “I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” [Trump, 2025-08-07]
Trump was president when the last census happened, in 2020.
Politicized Fed
August 2025: Trump Appointed Stephen Miran To The Fed. According to Trump, “It is my Great Honor to announce that I have chosen Dr. Stephen Miran, current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, to serve in the just vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January 31, 2026. In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement. Stephen has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University, and served with distinction in my First Administration. He has been with me from the beginning of my Second Term, and his expertise in the World of Economics is unparalleled — He will do an outstanding job. Congratulations Stephen!” [Trump, 2025-08-07]
Miran Has Pushed For A More Politicized Fed, Calling For A “Revolving Door” Between The Fed And Political Leadership. According to the Financial Times, “Before joining the Trump administration, Miran had advocated for reform of the US central bank, including shorter term lengths for officials and making the 12 regional Fed banks, which are set up like private corporations, public bodies. He also wanted to make it easier to fire Fed officials and halt a “revolving door” between the central bank and the White House. In a document published by the Manhattan Institute think-tank, Miran said the Fed’s institutional design had “morphed into unchecked and broad-ranging authority, tempting the Fed into straying beyond its democratically bounded role”.” [Financial Times, 2025-08-07]
Previously Noted Miran Flaws
Alternative Asset Managers Noted That Trump CEA Chair Miran Was “Out Of His Depth” In An Attempt To Reassure Them About The Administration’s Policies. According to the Financial Times, “Donald Trump’s top economic adviser Stephen Miran struggled to reassure leading bond investors in a meeting last week that followed a bout of intense tumult on Wall Street triggered by the president’s tariffs. Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, met representatives from top hedge funds and other major investors at the White House’s Eisenhower Executive Office building on Friday, said people with direct knowledge of the matter. Some participants found Friday’s meeting counter-productive, with two people describing Miran’s comments around tariffs and markets as ‘incoherent’ or incomplete, and one of them saying Miran was ‘out of his depth’. ‘[Miran] got questions and that’s when it fell apart,’ said one person familiar with the meeting. ‘When you”re with an audience that knows a lot, the talking points are taken apart pretty quickly.’ Another person familiar with the meeting was more encouraged by the administration’s approach to deregulation and tax cuts. The roughly 15 attendees included representatives of hedge funds Balyasny, Tudor and Citadel, as well as asset managers PGIM and BlackRock. The event, convened by Citigroup, was timed to coincide with the IMF’s spring meeting.” [Financial Times, 2025-04-29]
May 2025: Trump CEA Chair Miran Discounted The Possibility Of Trump’s Policies Driving Inflation. According to Bloomberg, “The White House’s chief economist dismissed the idea that tariff increases will have a lasting impact on US inflation, and cited the potential for interest rates to get back down to pre-Covid levels. ‘Imports are only 14% of the economy — the ability of those types of things to move the needle on inflation are limited,’ Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance. ‘We have been introducing tariffs since day-one of this administration. And what we have seen is tariffs have started to come up’ yet there’s ‘been no real meaningful effect on inflation.’” [Bloomberg, 2025-05-20]
May 2025: Miran Cited House Republicans’ Tax Plan As A Disinflationary Force. According to Bloomberg, “‘In the short run, can there be volatility in prices and economic activity, just as there were in financial markets? Yeah, it can happen,’ he said. ‘But over time, we have the leverage — and that”ll allow us to force the burden of the tariffs onto other countries.’ As inflation pressures dating from the Biden administration’s ‘reckless’ spending diminish, that will ‘provide scope for interest rates to come down,’ Miran said. ‘We”re going to bring interest rates down through expanding the supply side of the economy,’ through policies including deregulation and Republican’s tax package, Miran said. ‘We get interest rates back to where they were pre-Covid, that’s another point off the deficit,’ he said, referring to the budget deficit to GDP ratio — which has run in excess of 6% in recent years.” [Bloomberg, 2025-05-20]
Stephen Miran Saw The $26 Trillion More Foreigners Have Invested In The United States Than Americans Have Invested Abroad As A Problem. According to Bloomberg, “Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, sees it differently. The large claims that foreigners have on American assets are a potential risk, he argued in an interview with Saleha Mohsin for the latest weekly Bloomberg Big Take DC podcast. Subtracting out American holdings overseas, the US net international investment position is a negative $26 trillion. “This minus-$26 trillion is a massive latent financial stability risk,” Miran said. While not a danger right now, “it could morph into one, one day,” he said. This is another reason for dealing with the trade deficit, he argues. If foreigners aren’t earning as many dollars selling stuff to Americans, they won’t have the greenbacks to keep adding to their holdings of US assets.” [Bloomberg, 2025-05-28]
Miran Saw Parallels To The Eurozone’s Debt Crisis. According to Bloomberg, “If the current net debtor figure were to swell to a negative $40 trillion or $50 trillion, ‘that’s when you sort of get to crisis level,’ Miran says. (It’s already more than doubled from 2019, when it weighed in at less than $12 trillion.) The scenario he invokes is Europe’s crisis of more than a decade ago, which saw foreign investors yank cash out of European Union members with high debt loads, such as Greece. ‘What we saw with the EU, 14 years ago, is you don’t want to let it get there, right — you want to deal with it now,’ he says of imbalances.” [Bloomberg, 2025-05-28]
Miran: Service Exports Don’t “Shore Up National Security.” According to Bloomberg, “Miran also says that, when it comes to assessing the balance of trade, services don’t count the way that goods do. While the US goods-trade deficit is massive, at $1.2 trillion for 2024, it runs a surplus in services — amounting to $293 billion last year. Miran says a services surplus is all well and good, and he”d like to even see that expand. But ‘it doesn’t help shore up national security.’ For that, you need to be making goods that go towards things like rockets, bullets, tanks and ships, he argues. ‘You”re never going to be able to open the Red Sea’ by selling more financial ‘exotics,’ or ‘advertisements on the internet,’ Miran explains.” [Bloomberg, 2025-05-28]
July 2025: Miran Likened The Odds Of Trump’s Tariffs Raising Prices To That Of A Meteor Strike. According to CNBC, “A top White House economic advisor on Tuesday likened the odds that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher prices to those of a meteorite striking Earth. ‘Rare events happen. We get pandemics or, or meteors or whatever,’ said Stephen Miran, chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box.’ But ‘there’s just no evidence thus far of it happening,’ Miran said. Anchor Melissa Lee noted that Miran was equating tariff price increases with extremely rare events. ‘I don’t mean to be dismissive,’ he replied. ‘All I mean to say is that prediction is difficult, and we should always speak in terms of odds and possibilities.’ ‘I don’t have a crystal ball telling me the future and neither does anyone else,’ he said.” [CNBC, 2025-07-08]
Financial Instability
August 2025: Trump Signed An Executive Order Making It Easier For Private And Crypto Assets To Be Sold To Americans’ 401(k) Accounts. According to the White House, “Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to allow 401(k) investors to access alternative assets for better returns and diversification. The Order directs the Secretary of Labor to reexamine the Department of Labor’s guidance on a fiduciary’s duties regarding alternative asset investments in ERISA-governed 401(k) and other defined-contribution plans. The Order instructs the Secretary of Labor to clarify the Department of Labor’s position on alternative assets and the appropriate fiduciary process associated with offering asset allocation funds containing investments in alternative assets. The Order directs the Secretary of Labor to consult with the Secretary of the Treasury, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and other federal regulators to determine whether parallel regulatory changes should be made at those agencies to give effect to the purpose of the Order. The Order directs the Securities and Exchange Commission to facilitate access to alternative assets for participant-directed defined-contribution retirement savings plans by revising applicable regulations and guidance. PROMOTING RETIREMENT SECURITY THROUGH DIVERSIFIED INVESTMENTS: President Trump wants to give American workers more investment options in order to attain stronger and more financially secure retirement outcomes. More than 90 million Americans participate in employer-sponsored defined-contribution plans, and most of those are currently restricted from investing in alternative assets, unlike wealthy investors and retirement plans for government workers. Alternative assets, such as private equity, real estate, and digital assets, offer competitive returns and diversification benefits. Regulatory overreach and litigation risks have limited ERISA-governed plan fiduciaries from including alternative assets in their investment portfolios, hindering workers’ retirement growth. President Trump is expanding access to these assets to ensure a dignified and comfortable retirement for all Americans.” [White House, 2025-08-07]
Consequences of Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Strategy
Construction Companies Have Reported Less Reliable Workforces As The The Trump Administration’s Approach Has Made Even Legal Immigrants Afraid. According to Construction Dive, “The U.S. construction industry has faced chronic labor shortages for decades, with a shortfall of 439,000 workers. Immigrant workers have helped close the gap and now make up a considerable part of the workforce. Nationally, an estimated 19% of all workers are foreign-born, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But in construction, 34% of workers are immigrants, the National Association of Home Builders reports. In some trades — think drywall installers or plasterers — that number skyrockets to over 60%. Given those numbers, construction projects have become a popular target for immigration raids. Construction owners are rightly concerned; reports of indiscriminate arrests and detainments are creating an environment of fear at job sites, even among legal workers and citizens. While several industry groups have lobbied the Trump administration to take a more nuanced approach to immigration enforcement, construction companies have to respond now, managing their projects with a smaller and potentially less reliable workforce.” [Construction Dive, 2025-08-07]
Trade War
Despite Trump’s Claims, All Available Evidence Of American Manufacturing During His Second Presidency Suggests A Decline. According to the Wall Street Journal, “President Trump has claimed that his sweeping tariff regime will reshore American companies and revive manufacturing in the U.S. So far, that hasn’t happened. Economic activity tied to manufacturing has shrunk for most of Trump’s second term. A few investments and pledges aimed at beefing up domestic manufacturing appear timed to appease the president, and may or may not come to fruition. The latest is from Apple, which is planning to commit an additional $100 billion to the U.S., after saying in February it would spend more than $500 billion in the country over four years to make servers and parts for its key products. Beneath the shiny announcements lies a sector that can’t seem to get off the ground. From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline. The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s. Still, some economists say Trump’s tariffs, set to take broader effect on Thursday, aren’t high enough to bring companies back. Major U.S. trade partners like South Korea, the European Union and Japan for example, all face 15% tariffs, below the 25%-to-30% levels the president once threatened.” [Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-06]
Consumer Uncertainty Has Lowered Demands For Manufactured Goods. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson and off-road vehicle manufacturer Polaris, both of which have extensive U.S. factory operations, cited consumer uncertainty as a factor behind decisions to tamp down production. ‘Consumers are really just reluctant to go spend right now unless they really need to or they”re fortunate enough to have the financial flexibility to do that,’ Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen said during the company’s July earnings call.” [Wall Street Journal, 2025-08-06]
Rushed And Unclear Negations
Despite Having Reached An Agreement On Tariffs With Japan, Trump Signed An Executive Order Stacking Tariffs In A Way Counter To What The Japanese Government Believed They Were Signing. According to the Financial Times, “Japan’s lead trade negotiator has said that the US has promised to fix an ‘extremely regrettable’ oversight to ensure that the country’s biggest companies do not face tariffs in excess of those agreed between the sides last month. Ryosei Akazawa said that the US had promised to avoid ‘stacking’ the tariffs — which would add the 15 per cent levy agreed between Washington and Tokyo on top of existing charges — and refunding companies that had already been overcharged. Japan had believed its exports to the US would be charged a maximum of 15 per cent if pre-existing tariffs on goods were below that rate, and would not face additional levies on goods taxed at higher levels. But Trump’s sweeping executive order last week laying out new tariff levels on US trading partners only granted an exemption to the EU on stacking his ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on top of existing levies, sparking panic and frustration in Japan. ‘It is extremely regrettable that . . . an order inconsistent with the US-Japan agreement was issued and put into effect,’ Akazawa said following talks in Washington on Thursday with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury secretary Scott Bessent. Akazawa said that the US officials agreed to issue an amended executive order clarifying the Japanese exemption to stacked tariffs, and to simultaneously formalise the reduction in auto tariffs to 15 per cent from 27.5 per cent, in line with the countries” trade agreement.” [Financial Times, 2025-08-08]
Capital Flight
Trump’s Tariffs Have Brought About Fears That 2025 Will Be The First Year With A Rising Market Where Foreign Stocks Outperform American Ones Since 2009. According to Bloomberg, “US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are giving international stocks a serious lift and at the same time helping to end the S&P 500 Index’s run of global dominance — at least for now. International stock markets are on pace to outperform the broad US equities benchmark this year, the first time they’ve done that since 2022, and the first time in a rising market since 2009. Fears that tariffs and trade uncertainty will have an outsized impact on Corporate America’s earnings growth are the primary culprit. The MSCI World Index excluding the US is clobbering the S&P 500 in 2025, jumping 18% thus far versus a more modest 7.8% gain in the S&P 500. You can see why in the individual performances. Mexico’s key stock market index is up 18% this year, Canada’s is up 12%, Germany’s 21%, Spain’s 26%, Brazil’s 14%, and the UK’s 11%. It’s a sharp reversal from years of soaring gains for US equities, spurred most recently by mega-cap technology companies and the promise of artificial intelligence, and relatively sluggish performances by their global peers. This has left stocks in markets outside of the US relatively cheap.” [Bloomberg, 2025-08-08]
Citi Research: Trump’s Tariffs Expected To Hit American Companies Harder Than Non-American Ones. According to Bloomberg, “The reason is Trump’s tariffs, which are expected to hit Corporate America’s earnings harder than companies in Europe or Japan, said David Groman, a director on Citi Research’s global equity strategy team. Europe in particular is leading in value and momentum performance, according to a Citi note to clients on Wednesday. ‘There is more clarity and investors have this ability to at least pencil in what they think the earnings impact will be in a place like Europe or Japan,’ Groman said in an interview. Markets like Europe have already priced in a bad outcome on tariffs, and it may actually turn out to be better than expected, he added.” [Bloomberg, 2025-08-08]
Social Security Cuts
July 2025: Trump Proposed Rescinding The Biden Administration’s Public Assistance Rule, Calling The Change Economically Insignificant. According to OMB, “” [OMB, 2025-07-18]
The Biden Administration’s Rule Would No Longer Count In-Kind Support Against SSI Calculations, Granting Full Benefits To Nearly 300,000 Individuals, With Another 100,000 Newly Eligible. According to the Huffington Post, “Thousands of people on federal disability benefits got an extra few hundred dollars per month thanks to President Joe Biden, and now, thanks to President Donald Trump, it looks like that extra cash may go away. The Trump administration has given notice that it plans to rescind a change finalized last year allowing more Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries to receive full benefits even if they live with someone who helps them with food or shelter. Supplemental Security Income, often known as SSI or disability, offers a maximum benefit of just $967 per month, with a third taken away from recipients receiving ‘in-kind support and maintenance,’ such as help with groceries or rent, from a roommate or family member. The Biden administration finalized a rule last year saying it wouldn’t count in-kind support against SSI recipients if other people in the household are receiving federal food benefits, a change the administration said would grant full benefits to nearly 300,000 SSI recipients and make another 100,000 people newly eligible for the program.” [Huffington Post, 2025-08-07]
Corruption
In A Financial Times Article On How CEOs Have Managed Trump, An Unnamed Source Compared Trump To Henry VII. According to the Financial Times, “‘He smacks these leaders in the nose and they’ve learned not to respond the way, say, President Zelenskyy did,’ said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, senior associate dean for leadership studies at the Yale School of Management. ‘CEOs don’t want to individually poke the bear because of his vindictiveness,’ Sonnenfeld added. Others see the performative nature of these interactions with the White House as a level of obsequiousness without a modern equivalent. ‘It’s a little bit like the court of Henry VIII,’ said one former chief executive of a large US company. ‘How’s the sovereign this morning? Is he in a good mood? How’s the gout?’” [the Financial Times, 2025-08-08]
Unconstitutional Deal
August 2025: News Came Out That Nvidia And AMD Had Agreed To Share 15 Percent Of Their Revenue From Chip Sales To China With The U.S. Government. According to Bloomberg, “Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. have agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in an unusual, legally questionable deal that reflects the Trump administration’s willingness to soften export controls in exchange for financial payouts. Nvidia plans to share 15% of the revenue from sales of its H20 AI accelerator in China, US President Donald Trump said in a briefing with reporters on Monday. AMD will deliver the same share from MI308 revenues, a person familiar with the situation said, asking not to be identified discussing internal deliberations.” [Bloomberg, 2025-08-10]
Article 1, Section 9 of the U.S. Constitution: “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.”
Social Security Cuts
July 2025: Trump Proposed Rescinding The Biden Administration’s Public Assistance Rule, Calling The Change Economically Insignificant. According to OMB, “” [OMB, 2025-07-18]